Gartner Forecasts Global Shipments of AI PCs and GenAI Smartphones to Reach 295 Million Units in 2024

According to a recent Gartner forecast, worldwide shipments of AI PCs and generative AI (GenAI) smartphones are anticipated to reach a combined total of 295 million units by the conclusion of 2024, a substantial increase from 29 million units in 2023.

Ranjit Atwal, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, notes that the swift adoption of on-device GenAI capabilities and AI processors is poised to become a standard requirement for technology vendors. However, this widespread adoption may present challenges for vendors in terms of differentiation and revenue growth.

The projection includes 240 million GenAI smartphones and 54.5 million AI PCs, representing 22% of both basic and premium smartphones and all PCs in 2024. Despite the integration of AI into PCs, end-user spending is not expected to exceed anticipated price increases, requiring compelling reasons for investment from business device buyers.

Overall, PC shipments are expected to increase by 3.5% in 2024 to a total of 250.4 million units, with the PC market experiencing growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 after 8 consecutive quarters of decline. On-device AI is anticipated to rejuvenate PC marketing and sustain replacement cycles amid a disruptive socioeconomic environment.

Similarly, GenAI smartphones are not anticipated to drive smartphone demand until 2027, with enhancements to current experiences such as cameras and voice integration. Atwal emphasizes the importance of groundbreaking applications to justify premium pricing for GenAI smartphones.

The future of transformative user experiences lies in the advancement of smaller versions of large language models (LLMs) tailored for smartphones. This evolution is expected to significantly enhance smartphones’ intuitive capabilities, elevating the overall user experience.

Despite a projected growth of 4.2% in worldwide smartphone shipments in 2024, totaling 1.2 billion units year over year, Gartner cautions against interpreting this as a full-fledged recovery, instead characterizing it as a stabilization at a lower level compared to 2022.